Iowa republicans boast that in the last four election cycles where there was no republican incumbent president, the winner of the caucuses became the nominee of the Party twice...and in one of those two instances, was actually elected president.
This sounds pretty impressive...as part of a pitch aimed at establishing relevance...until, of course, PhD candidates from both Storm Lake and Ottumwa, Iowa point out that the success rate of Iowa caucus winners is identical to that of the idea of obtaining a result of either "Heads" OR "Tails" on a series of four flips of a wooden nickel.
In 2008, Johnny McNuts placed 4th in Iowa, behind The Musical Minister, Mike Chuckleberry, The Boring Mormon, Willard Romney, and The Accidental Candidate...Fred Thompson.
While the coin-flip significance of the Iowa caucuses, to the ultimate outcome of non-incumbent republican races makes any outcome in 2012 decidedly less than statistically significant, there are certain quantifiable notions which could put the Fear if God into folks on both costs...not of Iowa, as we await the final numbers.
Two candidates in the current cycle are in syndication as far as Iowa is concerned. Willard of the Magic Underwear ran pretty much the same campaign...(until a couple days ago) in Iowa, in 2008. In the previous cycle, he was the odds on favorite to conquer the Great Plains. In the end, he was summarily thrashed and trashed by a guy looking for a job at Fox News, and hoping to get his son out of being indicted for carrying a loaded weapon onto a commercial airliner.
Chuckleberry did have a few "in-bred," if not at least regional advantages however, with those and a few other facts being worthy of note, as we go along.
Ron Paul made his 17th appearance, as best as I can tell, on an Iowa caucus ballot, in 2008, dating back to something like 1928. Oddly enough, and depending on how the top tier candidates mix it up in the next three weeks, Ron Paul could end up with his new slogans being, "Life begins at 90," "The 17th time is a charm," or..."Corn, corn...everybody's got two ears".
None of the other candidates have a recent Iowa caucus history to point to...however, Iowa itself is as predictable in some ways as Herman Cain's response to the delivery of the new Victoria's Secret catalogue, or Rick Sanatarium's advice to Michele Botchmann's man-wife.
True...this is an enormously strange day, in a bizarre election season happening to take place during a European pre-financial meltdown, while Barack readies to lob cruise missiles into Downtown Tehran, Pakistan is Burning, the Occupy Wall Street crowd is mass producing more tri-corner hats than the teabaggers...and, oh, by the way, virtually no republican sub-group is happy with ANYONE currently running for president.
Hmmmmmm...at least some of that might introduce the concept of "u-ni-Q-ness" to the heartland of America, eh?
The seriously wacky lead-in to these caucuses has stemmed in part from the total absence of anyone even remotely resembling a "frontrunner". Weekly polling over a three month period in Iowa has seen five different names atop the leaderboard. Most recently, the soon-to-be once again disgraced former Speaker of the House...who replaced the currently disgraced and equally despicable ex-pizza delivery guy (...didn't you just KNOW all those "delivery guys" stories were true...) Herman Cain...who replaced the Texas Tar-Nada (and poster boy for multiple 12 Step Programs) Tricky Ricky Perry...who had displaced Willard and his Magic Underwear, right after Michele Botchmann bought just enough "fried butter" at the State Fair to make it look like anyone actually cared about her fantasy campaign as much as they did the onset of Social Security Disabilty resulting from coronary artery disease.
Then...in the last 72 hours, while I was making my final projections on Iowa...and AFTER I've labeled Sen Sanatarium as being officially even more batshit crazy than, well...politicians who gave glowing speeches about Jerry Sandusky and had dozens of photos taken with their arms around him...oh..wait...that was Rick Sanatarium, too...wasn't it? Well, let's just say that given what the religious right did for Mike Chuckleberry in Iowa, in '08, and that two major religious endorsements have been gifted to Batshit Ricky SINCE THURSDAY...I admit, I had to rewrite most of what you're reading now...post the normal 3 A. M.
So...polls that we know, unpredictable pols, past history, present unrest, an abundance of names, the lack of a candidate, character flaws and common sense be damned...who wins and loses Iowa, three weeks before the dance, and before any other pundits is willing to go on the line?
Let's get Willard and the Magic Underwear out of the way first. Unless every other candidate quits or gets forced out of the race, Romney would likely only dominate a race between he, Jon Huntsman, Buddy Former, Gary Johnson and two guys who only wish to be known as "NOT ROMNEY". Mitt got 25% in '08...and is polling 2nd at the moment at between 17 and 20 percent.
Mitt hovers right where he is on C-Day...and finishes THIRD.
Bachmann...yes, I said Bachmann and not Botchmann...because I'm lining up a running gag, m'kay?
Bachmann, Perry Overdrive...(because Sen. Sanatarium is in an even more psychotic state of forward movement than he is simply psychotic at the moment)...will undoubtedly wack up the wackadoo vote...which tipped the results in previous caucuses, at a pretty consistent low 40's percent number.
Forget, for the moment that if Santorum were to pull and an even more surprising Chuckleberry in 2012...the Governors of Missouri, Nebraska, Illinois and Minnesota would send THEIR National Guards to bring down the Hawkeye Regime and reinstate sanity.
The best news I can give thinking Americans on this Axis of Weasel, is that I can't see Sen. Sanatarium actually "WINNING"...even though a Santorum-Sheen Ticket would be the only reason why that should ever happen. "BPO" will still draw a healthy percentage of the vote, however. As a Block...of Blockheads, BPO will finished 2nd. Sanatarium, unless one of those pictures he took with Jerry Sandusky proves to be in the shower at Penn State...will likely out poll Botchmann and Perry, and land the single least deserving person in the known universe...a 4th place finish, not far off percentage-wise, from where Johnny McNuts called home in the list of Iowa results four years ago.
Newtie is polling at 30 % right now...three counties and and area code ahead of his closest competitor. The good newt is...there is no "good Newt"...and as Romney has already taken my advice and started carpet bombing this blimp-like carpet-bagger...Washington republicans are remembering how he screwed them repeatedly...like a Black & Decker 12 Speed Pro Model...and 999 of 1000 republican "strategists" declare that the country would never elect A LIZARD President...Newtie is about to enjoy the 13th or 14th toughest three weeks of his life.
Newtie drops in both polls and performance, but...holds on to SECOND PLACE...primarily as a stalking horse, until the ultimate nominee actually enters the race.
More on that right after Iowa.
Now...I know what you're thinking. "He didn't just day that RON PAUL is going to win Iowa...DID HE?"
As any good comedian knows...not only is "timing" everything...but, you really can't teach it. Like shit, life, and a few other select circumstances..."Timing Happens". And, in this case...Ron Paul finds himself in a situation where even though the posession of a heartbeat is all Ron really had to do with the goings on around him in thus instance...RON PAUL WILL WIN IOWA...even if by no more than default.
Yes, this assumes Newtie is outed for who and what he is AND that character matters AT ALL to Iowa Christians. It also assumes that Perry stays Perry, Botchman doesn't buy a lifetime supply of fried butter for caucus goers, Mitt doesn't receive a visit from Joseph Smith telling Romney "...it was just a dream, my son...that German Guy runs the true church,"...or Herman Cain gets back in & out, in & out, up & down, side to side, in & out of the race again...Ron Paul gets a good turnout in key college areas, and is the principal beneficiary of the fact that there are 1000 candidates and only 1100 voters.
So...yes, I know that anytime you go out on a limb like this, you set yourself up to with be "THE GUY" if you're right (or even close)...or in need of serious redemption if you crap the bed at the start of the season. However...with all things being equal over the holidays...and yes, I DO expect there will be bombshells during the Christmas Season (hopefully already effectively factored in...) The Official 2012 Iowa Caucus Results WILL BE...
WINNER: RON PAUL
2nd: Rooty-Tooty Fat-N-SNOOTY
3rd: Willard of the Magic Underwear
4th: Rick "Randle McMurphy" Sanatarium
5th: Katy Perry's Idiot Uncle
6th: Michele Botchmann
Last...and total LOSER: America